Tuesday, July 10, 2007

1 hour writing, 3 hours researching

Finished with my database of military governments since 1910. I was surprised to see that Argentina and Chile, which I've been thinking of as contrast cases to Colombia, are actually closer to average in the number of years of military government they've experienced in the last century. It's three countries that stand out as having suffered the longest under military rule: Paraguay, El Salvador, and Honduras. Those three contrast with the three at the other end of the spectrum: Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico. The beginnings of some interesting comparisons....

However, first I need to balance out this measure with another one: number and type of armed challenges. This is in truth closer to what I'm trying to measure, but also harder to conceptualize and measure. I'll need to think about how to weigh duration of a military government against frequency and type of armed challenge. This will speak to the whole issue of "stability": am I interested in the stability of a regime - in which case long-lasting military dictatorships like Paraguay's look awfully stable - or in the stability of constitutional governance, that is, the degree to which the constitution - and not guns - decides who holds office. I'm definitely inclined more toward the latter; the types of threats that interest me are those to the principle that the constitution governs who has power, whether those threats be armed challenge from society (insurrection) or from the state (coup).

Cathy and I are going this evening to see a preview of a new movie, Talk to Me, starring one of our favorite actors, Don Cheadle. He was in the Ocean's Eleven movies and was Oscar-nominated for Hotel Rwanda, but it's as Buck Swope in Boogie Nights that he forever captured our hearts. Another character shows him a card trick, and he asks, "Does it scare you dealing with all the evil forces? "Evil? No, it's an illusion." "Yeah, it's confusing!" He'll be there for Q&A, and I hope he gets a question about that role....

1 comment:

Laura said...

Kudos on the writing Chris.

Sounds like a very productive end to this part of your work -- ending up with new insights and questions. I wonder where they will lead you ...

Can't wait to hear about your work tomorrow.

Laura